Victory in Iraq
What is victory in Iraq, if Bush is able to achieve it?
Here's my view of where Iraq is going if we stay on Bush's course and actually manage to get the Iraqi military in a position where they can control the country themselves.
First, the government now in place is controlled largely by the Shiites, who undoubtedly will win in a landslide in the December elections. They will almost certainly take over control of most of the country, possibly leaving the Kurds in the north to themselves. They will institute a theocracy along the lines of that in Iran, and will govern under Islamic Law, with the clegy being the final arbiters of the law. Just how repressive such a regime would become is hard to know, but it seems likely that many of the freedoms we cherish would be denied to Iraq's populace. It's certainly possible the government could evolve into something like that in Iran.
Second, the only decent Iraqi fighting forces now in place (apart from the insurgents) are the Shia death squads. If the Iraqi army ever gets to the point where it can control the country, it will be through these death squads, who are controlled by various Shia mullahs around the country. These groups are at least as vicious as those controlled by Saddam, and mass killings and torture are likely to take place on a scale similar to that in Saddam's regime.
Third, none of these groups that are likely to control the country have any great love for the US, and all have an abiding hatred of Israel. Nothing (apart from a permanent solution to the Israeli-Palestinian problem) is likely to change that in the short run. So the government we will leave in place is likely to be just about as hostile to our interests as was the Saddam Hussein government. Unfortunately, it is likely to have many common interests with Iran, and the balance of power between Iran and Iraq that used to help maintain some degree of stability in that area of the world will no longer be effective.
The result could easily be an alliance between Iran and Iraq that would pose a very serious threat to US interests in the region.
And, that's what happens if we are victorious!
More likely, the country will just fall into civil war, from which it may take decades to recover.
Meanwhile, no matter what happens, the place will remain a prime breeding ground for terrorists.
In other words, folks, we've already lost this war. There are no good solutions left, and the sooner we get out the better as far as I'm concerned.
Here's my view of where Iraq is going if we stay on Bush's course and actually manage to get the Iraqi military in a position where they can control the country themselves.
First, the government now in place is controlled largely by the Shiites, who undoubtedly will win in a landslide in the December elections. They will almost certainly take over control of most of the country, possibly leaving the Kurds in the north to themselves. They will institute a theocracy along the lines of that in Iran, and will govern under Islamic Law, with the clegy being the final arbiters of the law. Just how repressive such a regime would become is hard to know, but it seems likely that many of the freedoms we cherish would be denied to Iraq's populace. It's certainly possible the government could evolve into something like that in Iran.
Second, the only decent Iraqi fighting forces now in place (apart from the insurgents) are the Shia death squads. If the Iraqi army ever gets to the point where it can control the country, it will be through these death squads, who are controlled by various Shia mullahs around the country. These groups are at least as vicious as those controlled by Saddam, and mass killings and torture are likely to take place on a scale similar to that in Saddam's regime.
Third, none of these groups that are likely to control the country have any great love for the US, and all have an abiding hatred of Israel. Nothing (apart from a permanent solution to the Israeli-Palestinian problem) is likely to change that in the short run. So the government we will leave in place is likely to be just about as hostile to our interests as was the Saddam Hussein government. Unfortunately, it is likely to have many common interests with Iran, and the balance of power between Iran and Iraq that used to help maintain some degree of stability in that area of the world will no longer be effective.
The result could easily be an alliance between Iran and Iraq that would pose a very serious threat to US interests in the region.
And, that's what happens if we are victorious!
More likely, the country will just fall into civil war, from which it may take decades to recover.
Meanwhile, no matter what happens, the place will remain a prime breeding ground for terrorists.
In other words, folks, we've already lost this war. There are no good solutions left, and the sooner we get out the better as far as I'm concerned.
posted by walldon | 2:31 PM
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