Iran war?

Now that the Iran nuclear problem has been referred to the UN Security Council, Steve Soto at The Left Coaster makes the following observations:

If you fast forward this story to its illogical but certain conclusion, and given Cheney and Rummy’s antagonism towards Iran and their delusions about toppling another major source of oil, it is almost all but certain now that this country and Israel will strike Iran sometime this year, especially since recent polls indicate the country is at least mixed on the idea. And with the Bush Administration giving strong indications that it has now shifted course and is working to strengthen the Sunnis and even their insurgents inside Iraq to take on the Shiites and their militias, one can only dread what will happen inside Iraq if such a strike takes place, and what Muqtada al-Sadr and Grand Ayatollah Sistani will unleash, with 135,000 of our troops tied down inside that country without sufficient armor. The prospect of seeing the Shia turn actively against us, and the Kurds separating themselves from us out of self-interest would make what has happened heretofore look tame...

But make no mistake, sometime after the Security Council fails to pass a resolution for sanctions against Iran, due to a possibly Russian, and definitely a Chinese veto, there will be an attack against Iran. Given the pride the Iranians have ascribed to the restart of a nuclear program in the “Axis of Evil” environment that this administration has created, I hold out little hope that the Iranians will back down, but I hope I am wrong.

Otherwise, I cannot fully imagine what will happen in the region after a strike by Israel or our country against Iran now, an occurrence that could have been prevented years ago by a more enlightened leadership in this country.

My guess is there will be air strikes, yes, but no massive invasion. We don't have the troops to do it. Unfortunately, Iran is likely to shut down its oil supplies to the world, which could cause oil prices to rise to $120 a bbl or more. I even recall one forecast of $180/bbl. And, as Steve Soto points out, this could be disastrous for any of our troops remaining in Iraq.