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Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Ethanol

I'm getting wonky.

Now that all the gas we get is mixed with 10% ethanol and many new cars are able to run on an 85% ethanol 15% gasoline mix, I thought I'd look into the case for ethanol to get myself informed on the subject. It turns out it isn't that easy. I've now finished reading about thirty scientific papers and have thirty or so to go before I'll feel prepared to offer readers here my final conclusions -- all of which will probably prove that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

Some of the problems of sorting all this out include:

1) "Expert" opinions vary rather widely on whether or not it takes more energy to make corn based ethanol than you get back from the finished product.

2) Many of the "studies" tend to be conducted by or funded by interested parties, such as corn growers groups, major companies in the industry (e.g., ADM), the petroleum companies, the auto companies, politicians in the farm states, and I'm even suspicious of studies conducted by the government, since under the Bush administration the government hasn't hesitated to tilt its scientific findings to support government policy. It's often difficult to tell whether a study is grinding an ax or on the up and up.

3) There are legitimate areas of disagreement on a variety of questions, including the effects of changing land use patterns, how to treat the energy content of by-products and co-products of the corn-to-ethanol process, and how fast technology will improve the farming and manufacturing processes.

My very preliminary opinion so-far: Corn based ethanol is not worth the effort unless the only purpose is to reduce dependence on foreign energy sources. Even the optimists find very little benefit, if any, to green house gas emissions.

Once I finish my "research", I'll give a more complete report on my findings and the reasons for them.

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