The Bush/Rice Theory on the Middle East

Sidney Blumenthal explains the "theory" under which Bush/Rice are operating in the Middle East:

As explained to me by several senior state department officials, Rice is entranced by a new "domino theory": Israel's attacks will demolish Hizbullah; the Lebanese will blame Hizbullah and destroy its influence; and the backlash will extend to Hamas, which will collapse. From the administration's point of view, this is a proxy war with Iran (and Syria) that will inexplicably help turn around Iraq. "We will prevail," Rice says.

That's about the stupidest theory I can imagine.

a) Israel's occupation of Lebanon was what led to the creation of Hizbullah. There is next to no likelihood that Israel will be able to destroy it by re-occupying Lebanon. In fact, if there were ever a recruiting tool for Hizbullah, this is it.

b) Unexpectedly, Israel is having a much tougher time just fighting Hizbullah than anyone expected. Some even talk about a Hizbullah victory.

c) The Lebanese are likely to blame Israel, not just Hizbullah, for the destruction of their country. And, even if they blamed Hizbullah, the government is not and will not be strong enough to destroy it's influence.

d) Why the backlash will extend to Hamas is not explained, probably because there is no explanation. This is the same sort of wishful thinking that led us to believe dropping a few bombs on Iraq (now read "Iran") would cause the Iraqis (now read "Iranians") to rise up and overthrow their government. It's really worked well, hasn't it?

e) Believing that defeating Hizbullah will cause Syria and Iran to collapse is truly la la land. It's about as likely as the killing of al Zarqawi was to cripple al Qaeda.