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Thursday, March 01, 2007

Business cycle spin

Economic pundits (Business Week, Kiplinger) are trying to convince readers that business investment will sustain the "economic recover." The problem with this reasoning is that is
1. business investment is driven by the accelerator (rate of GDP increase loosely put), but GDP is slowing down.
2. business investment leads economic upturns, rather than lag them, so it isn't likely it will suddenly make a second appearance late in the cycle.

Could it be that this kind of news is Bush Adm. and GOP friendly explains its appearance? Or is it simply that it might discourage investors whose reluctance would hurt investment companies who are a large part of the Bush Adm. "base."

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