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Thursday, July 05, 2007

Who ordered the kidnapping of the 15 Brit sailors?

Steve Clemons has picked up some interesting, if unconfirmed, intelligence on the kidnapping of the 15 Brits by Iran from a European diplomat:

The abduction of the sailors was an operation that was animated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The political fortunes of both have been falling this past year. Ahmadinejad lost key elections in December that not only marked his decline but marked the rise, to some degree, of political forces allied with former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani.

The abduction was designed to secure domestic political leverage for Ahmadinejad and the al Quds forces, whose budgets have been stagnant despite the rise of national income from increasing oil prices.

According to my source, Ayatollah Khamenei was furious when informed of the abduction. Iran nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani reportedly threatened to resign his post if the sailors were not released. And Rafsanjani -- behind the scenes -- "heaped scorn" on Ahmadinejad for the action he and the al Quds force triggered.

Khamenei ordered the sailors to be released and allowed Ahmadinejad to be the deliverer of the news -- on his own terms -- in a way that would allow him not to appear rebuked and would allow him to save political face.

According to the intelligence official, Rafsanjani's crowd has become marginally stronger -- and Ahmadinejad significantly weaker -- which makes the latter even more dangerous and unpredictable.

I frankly don't know whether this is good news or bad news. It does suggest things may be pretty unstable in Iran, which is probably bad news on the whole.

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