Obama's Sobering Prospects in the General Election

1.Obama has not won in the big states of CA, NY, NJ, PA, MI, TX, OH with large populations of Reagan Democrats and where Clinton has won decisively. Most of these states voted for Kerry in 2004 and is where he won most of his electoral votes. The states where Obama has won: WA, IL, WI, MN, Conn, VT, DE represented only a small fraction of 68 electoral votes. 2. Obama wins in caucus states where his supporters can influence people....Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, Wyoming. What happened to the secret voting booth? Most of these states don't vote democrat or have much electoral impact yet have undue influence. 3. in southern states with heavy black turnout: LA, Miss, AL, GA, SC, NC, VA, DC, MD. With the exception of DC and MD, all of these states have long voted Republican, 2004 was no exception so it is not clear that their influence will be important in in these states 2008.