Wake up DNC, the GOP is Starting to Get a Strategy

Below are key excerpts from Rep. Tom Davis' presentation on the plight of the Republican Party.
A. The GOP Brand Members instinctively understand that the Republican brand is in thetrash can. I've often observed that if we were a dog food, they would takeus off the shelf. . . . Democrats are winning by default. They have not made the sale to swingvoters but independents know they do not want us!

B. The President and Congress As the head figure of the Republican brand. President Bush continues toflounder. Although other Presidents have experienced low points that arealmost as bad, this President's lower ratings have been sustained over along period of time. The mold has hardened which is expressed by the verypositive and very negative numbers. ''Very negative" ratings indicate andfuel energy on the ground to "throw the bums out", as expressed in turnout,volunteers and cash raised. Democrats are not winning, we are losing. A strategy of waiting forDemocrats to fumble the ball is high risk at this point. Congressionaldisapproval ratings give us some opening to make the point that Democratsaren't getting the job done. However, antipathy toward President Bush andthe GOP brand make this a tall order. Failure to fundamentally change theGOP brand can lock us into a long period of minority status. Change is theorder of the day and voters are willing to gamble on change against a partyand President they dislike intensely.B. Turnout and Registration Given the strong intensity to the President and the Republican brand,turnout generation is much easier for Democrats than Republicans. The oldadage "people vote against" has spurred off-year election gains forDemocrats in New Jersey, Virginia and Kentucky (although a flawedGubernatorial candidate probably had more to do with a decisive loss in theBlue Grass state). Conversely, the election of Bobby Jindal, in Louisiana,had more to do with state issues than the National agenda. Voter turnout in Presidential primaries has been overwhelminglyDemocratic. In states where Independents and Republicans can choose theirballot in an "open primary" voters are opting for the Democratic ballot. Moreover, Democrats are out registering Republicans in record numbers. In California, Democratic registration has jumped from 42.7% to 43.5% over thepast six months. This is a 469,000 gain from 2004, while the GOP has lost109,000 voters. In Colorado, over the past four months, Democrats have gained 7,000voters, Independents have gained 5,000 voters and the GOP has gained 2,000voters. In Wyoming, over the last six weeks, Democrats gained 4%, whileRepublicans dropped registration. From Nevada to Pennsylvania, Democraticregistration continues to significantly outpace the GOP.

C. The Race for Money Nowhere is the Democratic surge more demonstrable than in the fundraisingtotals. From the Presidential race to the Courthouse, Democraticcontributors are opening up their checkbooks in record amounts. . Net roots and money from the internet have swelled Democratic coffers, fromthe Obama campaign, to their Red to Blue programs, giving Democrats hugefundraising advantages across the board. Much of this is fueled by a strongDemocratic desire to seize power after eight years of Bush and Cheney,coupled with a strong disappointment among grass roots Republicans at theparty's performance in office. Governance is a tough business requiringtough choices and holding together coalitions of economic and socialconservatives is difficult to sustain.Immigration pits our business wing against our grass roots wing. The War hasturned many educated, affluent Republicans away. Spending priorities,scandals, gas prices and home value declines leave little for Republicans tobe enthused over, particularly when our ability to draw issue lines andforce choices by Democrats is frustrated by House Rules, inarticulate andunfocused national leadership and finger pointing. . . .

D. The McCain/Obama Factor Before Republicans get too carried away with the fact that, even thoughthings are bad. we may win the Presidency and that can rescue us, a fewobservations about coattails are in order. This year, to the extent McCain is elected, it will be in spite of hisparty's brand name. McCain has his own branding and it is not consistentwith Congressional Republican branding.

E. Cultural Alignments Cultural attitudes shape voter attitudes, and the urbane Swarthmoreeducated Dukakis and Yalie, John Kerry, lost handily in middle America.Cultural issues have always been a part of the American political landscape,emerging, at times, in starkly partisan alignments. Barrack Obama is a quintessential cultural liberal - the candidate ofHyde Park, the University of Chicago and Harvard. Educated upscale votersfrom both parties, as well as independents of similar backgrounds, identifywith his style and rhetoric. Blue collar voters aren't so sure. Exit polls in West Virginia showed that two thirds of Clinton supporterswere unwilling to commit to Obama in the fall - and that's just amongDemocrats! With an economy perceived to be failing, these voters should beeasy prey to ANY Democrat, but they're not. Herein lies the key for theMcCain campaign, and potentially for alert Republican Congressionalcandidates. Over the last twelve years, partisan alignments have moved away fromwealth and economics to cultural and social issues. Obama's appeal is to the liberal cultural base of the Democratic Party,not to its liberal economic base. His connection to high income suburbs, thegranola belt and college towns, is strong, but his connection to poorerwhites, rural voters and other voters who may be susceptible to theDemocrats' message on the economy is not yet demonstrated. Conservativevalue voters are a long way from being sold on Obama, even while they feelpinched by global trade, a soft housing market and high gas prices. ButRepublicans have to hold these voters to have any chance in 2008. 2008 is different. Demographically, the nation is more diverse and moreurbanized than in 2004. The Iraq war has proved to be the ultimate culturalissue, fueling and giving oxygen to the cultural left, as well as plantingdoubts in many swing voters minds about the direction of the country. Theeconomy is softening and gas prices are skyrocketing, giving Obama anopening to court conservative value voters who are hurting economically. Moreover. John McCain is not a polarizing figure. One could argue he isthe opposite - moderate, bi-partisan, and unifying, which makes his claim onvalue voters different from Bush. How these lunch-bucket Democrats, who areculturally more conservative, vote this fall is the key to victory. The coalition of cultural liberals and African Americans assembled by Obamahas left out vast swaths of middle Americans concerned about the war, gasprices and the economy. But they are hardly ready to embrace McCain, letalone Congressional Republicans. Harsh cultural appeals on abortion and gunsmay have less to do with bringing these Democrats and Independents on board,than reassuring them that we have answers to these other issues This election is about independent voters. Even if we get everyRepublican out to vote, we lose without Independents, forget the Democrats.They've been waiting to get back since the Florida recount. It's all about the Independents.

F. The Next Steps:

1. Gas prices There is no immediate relief in sight. Democrats not only have noanswers, they are part of the problem. Nigeria and Cuba are ready to drilloff our shores, but Congressional Democrats say no. ANWAR and oil shaleoffer new sources, but environmentalists say no. At $124 per barrel, who are we kidding? The President should send an emergency energy package to Congress and dare them to act. (HOW DISINGENUOUS IS THIS?) It should include some global warming initiatives to keep it credible, such as government's utilization of green buildings and use of energy efficient vehicles. But it should also include offshore energy exploration and oil shale production, plus more long-term research dollars on alternative fuels, such as cellulosic and wind and extended tax breaksfor energy efficiency. It could or could not offer immediate tax relief at the pump. You don't want it to be too gimmicky. But, it puts us on offenseand spotlights Democratic failures. And, it gives voters some hope that somebody is doing something.

2. Home Values: You have to hand it to Barney Frank. He produced a bill that gives home owners hope. Never mind that it puts the government on the hook for $300 billion in loan guarantees and doesn't solve the problem. What is our reaction? Our leaders walk out of a White House/GOP conference with thePresident and vow to uphold a veto! That says a lot. Where is our proposal?. . .

3. Immigration: At least the Republican Congress reported out immigration bills in each Chamber (though vastly different). The Democrats have just punted. Rather than deal with a tough issue, they punt. This can be a gift horse. Immigration is one of the most polarizing issues of our time. Hispanics and business leaders want reform. Lou Dobbs wants reform. Taxpayers want reform. Democrats get away with doing nothing because we're afraid of the issue. (WASN'T IT THE REPUBLICAN'S THAT KILLED IMMIGRATION REFORM BILL?) Remember. Hispanic voters are a swing group in this election and future elections. John McCain, being from a border state, may be out of sync with many Republicans but he has standing among Hispanics. Barrack Obama has not made the sale to Hispanic voters. Thus, this issue is a tar baby for anyone who touches it, with land mines everywhere. But the Democrats control Congress and are doing nothing. This needs to be highlighted. Put the onus on them to produce a bill. Put them on defense.

4. American Competitiveness: When Obama says he'll renegotiate NAFTA, his culturally liberal supporters near Central park or Menlo Park cringe. They know better! Bill Gates was shocked that 90% of Republicans supported free trade,while less than 20% of Democratic members do. If you want to fix the economy, let's talk about the Democratic Congress's head in the sand approach to globalization. The public hates Congress. Why don't they associate Democrats with it?(BECAUSE REPUBLICAN'S STOP DEMOCRATS IN CONGRESS FROM DOING ANYTHING).

5. Stock Market Barrack Obama wants to move Capital Gains taxes to 25%. In a floundering stock market that will chase away investment, not attract capital. We should continue to hammer away at the Democrat's tax proposals. Their numbers don't add up; they won't help the economy; and middle America is in no mood for tax hikes.

6. War on Terror: We must continue to hammer on FISA every chance we get. Terrorism ranks sixth today as an issue, but one incident can propel it to first. Democrats will blame Bush for any problems, so it is important that the record on these issues be clear and concise. FISA, intelligence funding, border security, etc. are critical and the lines between protecting our citizens and preserving privacy will crumble with a major incident (ENGINEERED BY REPULICANS?).

7. Health Care One issue of concern to all Americans is Health Care. Health Care is the weakest issue for Republicans. After all, aren't we the ones who opposed extending health care to children of the working poor(S-CHIP)? Never mind the policy arguments. Voters have made their choice.What we have not done is talk about the Democratic failings in Health Care.They control Congress (FALSE GIVEN GOP BLOCKS DEMS WITH FILIBUSTER THREAT). Their presidential candidates claim they want everyone covered. Where's the program? The Democrats, outside of S-CHIP extension, have really done nothing for Health Care.

G. Conclusion: John McCain helps. He doesn't carry anyone over the Finish line, but he doesn't drag anyone down. In all, the lineup favors Democratic gains and that is before theDemocratic money pours in to an expanded playing field. The major variables include: (I) the issues matrix, in October; (2) the Presidential race; (3) the ability to fund key races; (4) spending smartly; and (5) resurrecting the Republican Congressional brand (for open and challenger seats) and having incumbents' personalized branding in their own districts. In the presidential race, we won't win any appreciable black vote and very little cultural liberal votes, against Obama. So let's focus on shoring up our base: socialconservatives; lunch bucket blue collar whites; Hispanics (they are in play for McCain) and military veterans. McCain may lose, but he's not likely to collapse, especially in our targeted districts. Efforts in the South, border states and Arizona, to attach him to us (particularly in challenge and open seats), is important. Resurrecting the brand is probably the most difficult and most important initiative we can take, over the next six months, is restoring the GOP brand name, so that it is not an albatross to our candidates. If leadership feels that it is too difficult a task, at least create an atmosphere where our candidates can brandthemselves. We have to have a party reputation that allows us to compete nationally and especially in swing districts. Democrats have gone out of their way to attract the pro-gun, pro-life candidates where it suits them. However, that dissonance with an Obama candidacy and an Obama Presidency, should it occur, offers us opportunities. Staying on offense on the key issues is critical to our success and having a President working with us to pin the tail on a Democratic Congress can give us opportunities that do not appear today. Of course, Democrats running in tandem with Obama, particularly in bluecollar and southern districts, create their own exposures, but without a major faux pas by the candidate or a major retooling by Congressional Republicans. McCain's coattails will be short.