Heads I win, tails you lose

Kevin Drum makes the point that it's the electoral vote, not the popular vote that counts. Don't be so sure. You may recall that the last time there was a contested election (2000), the Bushies had two plans in their pocket before the returns came in. The one they didn't need to use was for the contingency that they won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote. The plan was to jump up and down and scream so loudly about the "will of the people" being ignored (coupled with some arm twisting, intimidation and possibly outright blackmail of electors) that some of the electors would switch sides and vote for Bush instead of Gore. That plan was well entrenched and set to go in the event Gore had won the electoral vote but lost the popular vote, and it probably would have worked. Since the McCain campaign is being run by many of the same people that ran Bush's campaign, you can bet the same plan will be in place.

So, don't be too sure that a win in the electoral college is a win -- at least if it's the Democrat who wins.