Calling the Bottom of the Market: Who knows?

Has the market hit bottom yet? The current bear wrought roughly a 32.8 decline. Seven of the 10 bear markets have gone lower. Arguably, this decline is at least, if not more, serious than the recent 2000-02 decline of 49% which applied to this market would specify the bottom at about 6400. If we have the Great Crash decline of 865%, the bottom would be 2988.

Here's the data for the last 10 big bear markets

Period % decline/ duration in mos.


9/29- 6/32 86.1 %/ 34 mo

3/37- 4/42 60%/60mo.

5/46- 6/49 40%/37mo.

12/61-6/62 28.0%/6mo.

11/68-5/70 36.1%/18mo

1/73-10/74 48.0%/21mo

11/80-8/82 27.8%/21mo.

8/87-12/87 33.5%/3mo.

3/00-10/02 49.1%/30mo.

10/07- present 32.8%/ 12 mo. so far


Note that most of these occurred when a Republican was President.