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Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Russia, China, & Iran

According to Iran, Russia and China have told Iran they will refuse to back UN sanctions against Iran:

Russia and China have told Tehran they will not support UN sanctions or military action over its nuclear programme, the Iranian foreign minister says.

UN ambassadors from the United States, Britain and France are expected to introduce a resolution this week to legally oblige Iran to comply with UN Security Council demands that it halt all uranium enrichment work.

But Manouchehr Mottaki told the Kayhan newspaper on Tuesday: "The thing these two countries [China and Russia] have officially told us and expressed in diplomatic negotiations is their opposition to sanctions and military attacks.

"At the current juncture, I personally believe no sanctions or anything like that will be on the agenda of the Security Council," he said.

What I can't tell is whether they are being artfully vague. Saying they "refuse to back" sanctions is not the same thing as saying they will veto them. It's the veto power that counts here.

My guess is that they will try to delay a vote by hinting at a veto, while actually trying to water down the motion through behind the scenes negotiations. How long that will continue is anybody's guess.

The question is, how long will Bush be willing to wait. He wasn't prepared to wait very long in Iraq, was he?

Meanwhile, the US is doing no serious negotiating with Iran, which is what should be happening.

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