Light at the end of the tunnel

Today, we are told (for the thousandth time) that the insurgents in Iraq are losing ground:

The insurgents are losing ground, and Iraqi security forces are gaining, said Army Col. Sean B. MacFarland, commander of 1st Brigade, 1st Armored Division. He also said his soldiers' goal is not to destroy the insurgency but to build up the Iraqi army and police to a point where they can fight the insurgents on their own.

You know, the "light at the end of the tunnel" line might have worked for awhile. But, when we heard it being repeated the very day before the last of our troops chaotically fled Saigon by heliocopter airlift from the roof of the embassy on live TV, it doesn't sell well anymore.

Everyday, we hear about dozens of dead bodies showing up all over Iraq. Almost every day the body count of US soldiers killed in action increases. These things are getting worse, not better. Only the craziest kind of analysis could lead to the conclusion that "the insurgents are losing ground."

But, I've come to believe that commanders on the ground are incapable of realistically assessing progress in a war like this. They couldn't in Vietnam, and they can't in Iraq.