Barrons: Republicans will hold majority

For whatever it's worth Barrons predicts GOP will keep it's majority in both houses:

JUBILANT DEMOCRATS SHOULD RECONSIDER their order for confetti and noisemakers. The Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two weeks and hand them control of the House for the first time in 12 years -- and perhaps the Senate, as well. Even some Republicans privately confess that they are anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Pardon our hubris, but we just don't see it.

Our analysis -- based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data -- suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber's 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party's loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three.

Frankly, I don't think there's much new information here. We've known for a long time that the Republicans have a significant funding advantage. Yes, of course that helps them win, but with the tide running overwhelmingly against them (from all other indicators), some extra campaign commercials may not have much effect. In fact, I think there's a law of diminishing returns that applies to commercials. The first few you see may have a significant effect, but the more you see, the less effective each additional viewing becomes.

I'm certainly not ready to declare victory yet, but I fear the funding less than a lot of other things. The Thuglicans have a great GOTV effort. They have a huge voter intimidation effort in place in all kinds of ways from making immigrants think they will be arrested if they vote to striking names from the registration rolls to making sure there are too few voting machines in Democratic precincts to challenging voters' identities when they show up at the polls. Finally, if all else fails, who knows how many of the machines are fixed? If the Thuglicans eke out a hold in this election it's more likely to be because of those kinds of things than the funding difference.