Don't get too euphoric
I'm not making any election predictions. I'm already afraid I'm getting too euphoric. I fear the inevitable let down that's going to come if the Republicans succeed in keeping both Houses.
Meanwhile, let me just deflate things one bit for those of you who aren't watching the serious prognosticators. As far as I can tell, no one, not a single knowledgeable observer is predicting that the Democrats will take over the Senate. The standard forecast seems to be a gain of four, which, assuming Lieberman wins in Connecticut, is really only a gain of two, since Lieberman is either going to switch parties or become Secy. of Defense. Either was, a Republican will hold his seat. The Dems need to pick up six to control the Senate. Short of a miracle (we can always pray), it isn't going to happen.
Right now, it looks as though we'll get pick ups in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Montana, and Rhode Island. No certainty there, but pretty good leads for the Dems.
There are two Democratic seats that look dicey. New Jersey is one, although right now, it looks like the Democrat, Menendez is pulling in front of Junior (Tom Kean, Jr.). The other is Maryland, where the Republican, Steele, an African-American who is very articulate, seems to be catching up quickly. This one looks really dangerous to me.
Then, there are the three toss-up states where Democrats have a chance to pick up a seat. They are Virginia, Tennessee, and Missouri. It looks as though Webb, the Democrat, has a chance in Virginia, where he is now leading slightly in most polls. I very much doubt Ford can beat Corker in Tennessee. And, the McCaskill v. Talent race in Missouri is too close to even speculate. Nevertheless, I doubt there is much chance for the Dems to gain more than two of these three, and it's more likely they'll gain only one.
That's it folks. There are no real opportunities anywhere else this year. So, don't be too dismayed if we don't take the Senate.
Unfortunately, of course, it's in the Senate where the next Supreme Court appointment will be heard.
Meanwhile, let me just deflate things one bit for those of you who aren't watching the serious prognosticators. As far as I can tell, no one, not a single knowledgeable observer is predicting that the Democrats will take over the Senate. The standard forecast seems to be a gain of four, which, assuming Lieberman wins in Connecticut, is really only a gain of two, since Lieberman is either going to switch parties or become Secy. of Defense. Either was, a Republican will hold his seat. The Dems need to pick up six to control the Senate. Short of a miracle (we can always pray), it isn't going to happen.
Right now, it looks as though we'll get pick ups in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Montana, and Rhode Island. No certainty there, but pretty good leads for the Dems.
There are two Democratic seats that look dicey. New Jersey is one, although right now, it looks like the Democrat, Menendez is pulling in front of Junior (Tom Kean, Jr.). The other is Maryland, where the Republican, Steele, an African-American who is very articulate, seems to be catching up quickly. This one looks really dangerous to me.
Then, there are the three toss-up states where Democrats have a chance to pick up a seat. They are Virginia, Tennessee, and Missouri. It looks as though Webb, the Democrat, has a chance in Virginia, where he is now leading slightly in most polls. I very much doubt Ford can beat Corker in Tennessee. And, the McCaskill v. Talent race in Missouri is too close to even speculate. Nevertheless, I doubt there is much chance for the Dems to gain more than two of these three, and it's more likely they'll gain only one.
That's it folks. There are no real opportunities anywhere else this year. So, don't be too dismayed if we don't take the Senate.
Unfortunately, of course, it's in the Senate where the next Supreme Court appointment will be heard.
posted by walldon | 11:00 AM
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