The Foley effect

This Pew poll purports to prove that the Foley scandal has had very little effect on public opinion and that it is the war in Iraq that is driving the Republicans down in the popularity polls. While I suspect there is much truth in that, I don't think that means the Foley scandal hasn't taken its toll. I think it clearly has taken a tremendous toll by forcing the Republicans completely off-message right in the midst of the most important period of campaigning. Nobody's listened to anything Bush has had to say for the past week, and the rest of the Republicans haven't been able to focus on much of anything except Foley and whose side to line up on (which, of course, really means which of the various finger pointers -- Boehnert, Hastert, Reynolds, Shimkus -- is going to end up losing). That can't be doing their campaigns any good.

So, even if the Foley scandal hasn't had much direct influence on the public opinion, I think it is having a major effect on the Democrats' prospects.

I don't know whether the scandal will ultimatly impact public opinion. I suspect it will. It just takes a bit of time for things to sink in with folks. But, whether it does or not, things are not looking good for Republicans right now.

Meanwhile, don't start counting chickens.