Some good news
Well, I really started today in a blue funk - as you can see from my previous post. However, here's some relatively good news from the latest Gallup poll on the Senate races:
Missouri: McCaskil (D) 49 (48), Talent (R) 45 (45)
Montana: Tester (D) 50 (48), Burns (R) 41 (45)
NJ: Menendez (D) 50 (46), Kean Jr. (R) 40 (43)
RI: Whitehouse (D) 48 (50), Chafee 45 (39)
TN: Ford (D) 46 (49), Corker (D) 50 (45)
VA: Webb (D) 46 (45), Allen (R) 49 (48)
(earlier results are in parentheses to indicate the trend)
These results are after applying the "likely voter" screen to the raw data. In some of the really close races, the raw data look even better. Webb is tied with Allen 42-42 in the raw data. Whitehouse leads Chafee 49-37 in the raw data. McCaskil leads Talent 46-39 in the raw data. Some have argued that most, if not all of the apparent swing to Republicans in the latest round of polling is due to changes in the likely voter screens due to some perceived increase in Republican enthusiasm. So, the massive shift in opinion may be illusory.
Based on this Gallup poll, a Democratic pickup of six seats in the Senate seems plausible; Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana, Missouri, Rhode Island, and Virginia. This, of course, would give the Dems control of the Senate until Lieberman finks. I'm guessing a pickup of four is more likely, but that's a whole lot better than the pickup of one that I was thinking likely based on yesterday's polls.
Missouri: McCaskil (D) 49 (48), Talent (R) 45 (45)
Montana: Tester (D) 50 (48), Burns (R) 41 (45)
NJ: Menendez (D) 50 (46), Kean Jr. (R) 40 (43)
RI: Whitehouse (D) 48 (50), Chafee 45 (39)
TN: Ford (D) 46 (49), Corker (D) 50 (45)
VA: Webb (D) 46 (45), Allen (R) 49 (48)
(earlier results are in parentheses to indicate the trend)
These results are after applying the "likely voter" screen to the raw data. In some of the really close races, the raw data look even better. Webb is tied with Allen 42-42 in the raw data. Whitehouse leads Chafee 49-37 in the raw data. McCaskil leads Talent 46-39 in the raw data. Some have argued that most, if not all of the apparent swing to Republicans in the latest round of polling is due to changes in the likely voter screens due to some perceived increase in Republican enthusiasm. So, the massive shift in opinion may be illusory.
Based on this Gallup poll, a Democratic pickup of six seats in the Senate seems plausible; Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana, Missouri, Rhode Island, and Virginia. This, of course, would give the Dems control of the Senate until Lieberman finks. I'm guessing a pickup of four is more likely, but that's a whole lot better than the pickup of one that I was thinking likely based on yesterday's polls.
posted by walldon | 8:44 AM
1 Comments:
Yeah, I'm still in the funk zone, myself. I remember desperately trying to read the polling tea leaves in 2004, hoping against hope.
These numbers look better than the others, but. . . .
And we still have not gotten past GOTV, those non-MSM-reported GOP robo-calls, and Diebold/election fraud.
Not without hope here, but not daring to feel it, either.
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