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Thursday, November 30, 2006

Who does what to whom

As I mentioned in an earlier post, the Saudis have said that they will come in to protect the Sunnis from the Shi'ites if the U.S. pulls out. This is likely to put the Saudis on a collision course with the Iranians, who are supporting the Shi'ia. Now, if that leads to some kind of Saudi-Irani war, the Saudis are going to get crumped unless someone else comes in to defend them. Just look at the relative populations of the two countries. Saudi has a population of 27 million, of which almost 6 million are non-Saudi, so that leaves 21 million Saudis. Iran has a population of almost 69 million, more than three times more than Saudi Arabia.

So, who is there to defend the Saudis? Well, it's hard to think of any country that has a decent sized army. Egypt? I doubt it. The Turks are not very likely to go in to defend the Sunnis. Their biggest concern is with the Kurds. So they might get involved to keep the Kurds under control, but not to defend the Saudis defending the Sunnis.

So, guess who gets to defend the Saudis in their war with Iran. Somebody's got to protect the oil wells, don't they?

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