Brokered convention

You've probably heard all the hype about how a brokered convention will kill the Democratic chances for victory in the fall. I even heard someone on CNN say that the last two brokered conventions were the ones that selected Adlai Stevenson, on the one hand, and Thomas Dewey on the other, and "you know how those turned out."

Am I mistaken? Wasn't the convention that selected John Kennedy brokered? And, wasn't the convention that selected Ronald Reagan (first time around) somewhat brokered? At least I remember significant doubt about who would win those nominations as late as the first days of those conventions. And, of course, you know how those turned out.

So, while I don't much like the idea of the super delegates picking our candidate -- or even worse, a bunch of rich men in a smoke filled room, I'm not sure it would kill the party's chances -- particularly not if all sides coalesced after the selection.

It occurs to me that most of this hype seems to be coming from the Clinton side of the fence, and I suspect it is intended to do two things. a) force the party to admit the Michigan and Florida delegates, who predominantly support Hillary and b) scare us normal folks into voting for Hillary instead of Obama (since they know she has the super delegates sewed up and will win in the end anyway) in order to give her a clean victory and avoid a disaster at the convention.

By the way, it also seems to be conventional wisdom that McCain's sewing up the race early gives him a significant advantage, since the Democrats will be fighting each other for the time being, while he can focus on fighting them. I would agree if Hillary and Obama decided to get down into the sewer and do some real street fighting (to mix metaphors). But, I don't necessarily agree if they hold to the high road where they were in the last debate. (By the way, in this regard, Hillary should dump her surrogates Carville and Penn. They tend to get into the sewer very quickly).

In fact, the longer this Democratic contest goes, the longer Hillary and Obama will be getting free publicity. McCain's not likely to get as much press attention. It's boring to cover the horse race after it's over. Furthermore, Hillary and Obama both know who to attack on the other side, while McCain has to take aim against two targets who may be shooting at him from different directions. I have a feeling McCain may be the one who starts to feel the heat first here.