Iraq in one year
On Meet the Press today, Richard Engel (NBC war correspondent) predicted that by this time next year the Shi'ites would have taken over Baghdad completely, the Shi'a government would be in relatively firm control of the Shi'a areas, the Sunnis would be in disarray, the Americans would be out of Baghdad and fighting only in Anbar, and both Bush and al-Maliki would have claimed (falsely) victory.
I wonder. Somehow I doubt that the Sunnis are going to roll over and play dead. And, what about the Saudis and the various Sunni-controlled Emirates? Are they going to sit by and let the Sunnis be destroyed? Further, what about the Kurds? That's going to be its own mess. Somehow, I suspect it's going to be difficult to call this a success.
However, if Engel is right (and he certainly has the advantage of having lived in Iraq for four years), the political implications here at home could be important. If people really began to believe Bush that his surge policy had been "victorious," Democratic prospects in 2008 could turn very bleak.
I wonder. Somehow I doubt that the Sunnis are going to roll over and play dead. And, what about the Saudis and the various Sunni-controlled Emirates? Are they going to sit by and let the Sunnis be destroyed? Further, what about the Kurds? That's going to be its own mess. Somehow, I suspect it's going to be difficult to call this a success.
However, if Engel is right (and he certainly has the advantage of having lived in Iraq for four years), the political implications here at home could be important. If people really began to believe Bush that his surge policy had been "victorious," Democratic prospects in 2008 could turn very bleak.
posted by walldon | 12:02 PM
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