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Thursday, December 06, 2007

Neo conmen II

At TPM, I find this gem by John Bolton:

[T]he NIE suffers from a common problem in government: the overvaluation of the most recent piece of data. In the bureaucracy, where access to information is a source of rank and prestige, ramming home policy changes with the latest hot tidbit is commonplace, and very deleterious. It is a rare piece of intelligence that is so important it can conclusively or even significantly alter the body of already known information. Yet the bias toward the new appears to have exerted a disproportionate effect on intelligence analysis.

Imagine what he would be saying if the NIE had come out saying, "new information proves Iran has multiple nuclear weapons programs not heretofore known about." I'll guarantee you he wouldn't be talking about the overvaluation of "new information."

The duplicity of this neocon crowd is really unbelievable.

1 Comments:

Blogger KISSWeb said...

Would any of the media hotshots who turn to him for his "expertise" dare to point that out? Or even think about making the point?

1:40 PM  

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