Speeches and Polls

I've seen repeated comments in the press about how Bush's series of speeches on the war is causing his approval ratings to rebound in the polls. At the same time, approval of the war effort is falling, so I think that's just the press once more buying into the White House spin.

The real reason Bush's approval ratings have gone up is because gas prices have fallen dramatically from their peaks just after Katrina. That, of course, is more or less when Bush's approval ratings had bottomed out.

Now, of course, Bush had nothing to do with the rapid rise in gas prices (at least not the short-term rise). That was because of Katrina and, later, Rita. Nor did Bush have anything to do with the subsequent decline in gas prices. But, that was what many people were paying attention to.

I think that the gas price influence on the polls has just about disappeared at this point. The rest of the people who have decided they don't like him have probably done so for more lasting reasons, and Bush is still down around 40 percent approval. That doesn't look good for him.