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Thursday, October 12, 2006

Possible 34+ seat Democratic sweep in the House?

Chris Bowers has some really upbeat polling news:

The new Majority Watch from Constituent Dynamics will be released in a few minutes. Based on 63 polls of 48 districts of 1,000 likely voters each, they will show Democrats currently ahead in the House by 19 seats, 224-205, or the exact, 19-seat margin of the Republican Majority after the 2002 elections. It is also a significant increase from the 219-214 seat lead for Democrats found in the Majority Watch polling from late August and early September.

This 19-seat lead will not even include seven competitive, Republican-held districts that are currently being polled, and six districts that are currently tied. In fact, perhaps most stunningly, the districts with "safe" leads outside the margins of error break 217-198 in favor of Democrats. The previous set of polls actually showed Republicans ahead on safe seats, 205-199. Further, since TX-22 was not polled, that means Democrats already have the magic 218, outside the margin of error, with between 19 and 26 more races in the "toss-up" category. This is a looming landslide.

I will have the complete, district-by-district results in this post once they are available. These polls include the first independent results for a number of districts, including many on the netroots page (MN-06, NC-08, ID-01, NY-29 and many more). This is by far the strongest evidence yet of a looming Democratic landslide, and is worth more than every generic ballot released this cycle. This is as close as you can come to actual proof that Democrats are on the brink of winning the House.
It's looking good, but I'm frightened that if we get too hopeful, we'll be in for a huge depression when we learn that the voting machines have awarded these seats to the Thuglicans.

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