Two headlines

This morning, Juan Cole has a headline on his column that reads "Deadliest July yet for U.S. Troops."

This morning, the New York Times has a headline that reads, "U.S. Death Toll in Iraq in July expected to be lowest in '07"

It turns out both are correct. So which one conveys the more accurate impression of how things are going in Iraq? Juan Cole's obviously. July is ALWAYS a slow month. After all, it's hotter than hell over there right now.